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I have been an avid listener of Jeff's Podcast for years. I love the way he teaches his audience how to make money online and grow their business. He has so many great ideas and really helps me with my social media marketing efforts as well as on my website. If you are looking for ways to increase your revenue, this is a podcast that will help you get started!
I have another fantastic treat for you. An interview with my friend Dan Brock, otherwise known as The Deadbeat Super Affiliate.
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How To Thrive As The World Recovers From Crisis - Interview With Dan Brock The Deadbeat Super Affiliate
Today I have another fantastic treat for you.
An interview with my friend Dan Brock, otherwise known as The Deadbeat Super Affiliate.
Dan’s been in the online world for 20 years now. Two decades! That’s a long time in any industry - but in the online world?
Wow. Veteran status.
And not only has he been in the game for 20 years - he’s been in the 7-figure club for much of that time.
Dan drops some insights gained from his failures and successes through the years and…
How he sees us thriving in the ‘new normal’ that’s shaping up in 2020 and beyond.
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Another great interview. Thanks you, Jeff, for asking that last question of Dan. Dan has so many good tips and I love how honest and open he was about the journey to becoming successful. It's not always going to go your way even if you do know what you're doing. This will at some point be out of your control because we can't predict the market. So many golden nuggets of information. Especially the analysis paralysis. That will be a hurdle for me for sure!
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Keep yourself the same in success and in failure was the best advise for me!
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I know for sure that after years of being in corporate American bussing it out everyday working late hours just to earn a predetermine set YEARLY salary I have earned the right to be a SMART dead beat!! The dead beat life is for me you can have the other for sure I’m done with it lol
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I'm a disabled veteran and I shake a lot
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I thought it was enspirering
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Jeff Lerner Reviews:
Jeff Lerner Reviews:
Dan Brock - Dealing with Crisis
Dan Brock - Dealing with Crisis
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail Hardcover – November 30, 2021
Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail Hardcover – November 30, 2021
by Ray Dalio (Author)
4.5 out of 5 stars
From the United States
From the United States
Understand the past to shape our future
Reviewed in the United States on December 5, 2021
I’m grateful Ray Dalio has shared his world view and his access to leading thinkers and valuable sources of data, to make me more aware and better prepared for what’s coming. I am also friends with Ray, and I trust him.
This book offers at least two major contributions.
First, the synthesis and integration of economic, social, and geopolitical history that presents a holistic view of how countries rise and fall. Leveraging his relationships with leading thinkers and historians, Ray gives us a way to understand the major forces, cycles, and paradigm shifts that can dramatically change the world around us. You would have to read dozens of well-chosen books to gain such an understanding, and you still may not have a comprehensive theory.
Second, the quantification of each major nation’s economic, cultural, and geopolitical health. With the support of Bridgewater’s multi-hundred-million-dollar research budget and team, Ray presents the key determinants of a country’s strengths and weaknesses through time, and relative to other countries. Seeing the most important long-term trends in charts provide useful perspectives that are unavailable elsewhere.
Here are some of my biggest take-aways.
Disorderly conflict is the pre-cursor to destructive conflict that is likely to be devastating for all of us. Both the winners and the losers of destructive actions are worse off relative to compromise, mutual understanding, and respect. As an American, I should not take for granted that I live in the most powerful country that has seen one of the longest periods of peace, economic growth, and innovation in global history. It’s not the norm, and if we aren’t careful, things could get a lot worse.
Invest in innovation. Both as an investor and as a citizen, innovation has been a powerful force for improving lives and driving economic growth.
We are likely in for a period of high inflation. The easiest way for the government to deal with high levels of debt is by printing money, using stimulus to spur economic growth, and keeping interest rates lower than nominal GDP growth. That is, to inflate their way out of debt. As an investor, he suggests avoiding long term holdings of cash and bonds. Instead, he recommends diversifying with assets that can do well in an inflationary environment, like highly dependable cash generating stocks, some gold (possibly a little cryptocurrency), and other scarce inflation-protected assets.
This book is a major contribution. I strongly recommend reading or listening to it. If you don’t have the time, at least read the first few pages of the introduction, the first chapter “The Big Cycle in a Tiny Nutshell”, chapter 8 "The Last 500 Years in a Tiny Nutshell", and the final chapter called “The Future”. I hope you found this helpful.
214 people found this helpful
Finally I get to read the whole book!!
Reviewed in the United States on November 30, 2021
I have read and studied the digital pre-prints available online for the past year from the author. Today, I finally received the printed book. The book has taught me several things already. First and foremost is the careful emphasis on collection and use of data and information. As a retired trained scientist (Caltech, Harvard, MIT), I am so delighted with this emphasis. Second, the book allows for nuances. It's never black or white and there is always "noise". Therein lies the challenge of careful analysis and insight. We shall see how the future unfolds. I'm only sorry that at my age, the most I can realistically observe is another 2-3 decades.
128 people found this helpful
The past is the future? Focus on the big picture
Reviewed in the United States on November 30, 2021
It is not just a book on economics. It is also a book on history. The book was written in a similar style like his last book "Big Debt Crises". Ray described history in cycles. With his new book, he made it easier to read by introducing two new features: bolding passages to create a QUICK-READ version and putting a RED DOT in front of principles that are considered timeless and universal truths.
I really like the QUICK-READ feature. It is very easy to miss the keypoints when reading a large book. With the bold letters, I will pay more attention. Here is an example of timeless and universal truths - "Throughtout time, the formula for success has been a system in which well-educated people operating civilly with each other, come up with innovations, receiving funding through capital markets, and own their means by which their innovation..."
The book is written in three parts: How the world works, How the world has worked over the last 500 years, and the Future. The first part is about the rise and fall of empires. The second part is an in-depth analysis of the Dutch Empire, British Empire, the United States, and China. The last part is about the future. The appendix included a computer generated power score for 11 world leading countries.
I have not finished reading the whole book yet. But after going through some of the chapters, I woud say that he did a fabulous job in condensing 500 years of history in an easy to read format for the readers and the graphs also help to illustrate the points he was trying to make.
The book answered a lot of my questions. For example, what is the impact of the different Pandemics to the world? Rather than seraching for answers on a lot of the different topics from different books, I can get my answers from this book.
The other thing I like about the book is Ray is not dodging a lot of the tough issues he brought up in his book. If he is not the expert, he will tell you that this is something he learned from the experts. He speaks his mind. Frank and direct.
Even if you do not believe in history will repeat itself, you will still enjoy reading this book.
54 people found this helpful
This material should be taught in all schools
Reviewed in the United States on December 2, 2021
This book, along with Dalio’s “Principles”, should be taught to every person who wishes to succeed in this century. Left, right, or centrist - it doesn’t matter… in fact, if you treat the material seriously, it will help you bridge the political divides that today’s media are creating, and populist politicians are exploiting. This is long-term thinking, but not ivory tower… or dreamer; it does a better job of explaining money than any MBA finance class.
As someone who has dedicated his life to serving - and thinking about - cooperative businesses, especially in the financial sector; I found this material both inspirational and alarming. It is disruptive thinking at its best.
46 people found this helpful
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen...
Reviewed in the United States on November 30, 2021
I read most of the chapters from this book on Ray's LinkedIn posts.
Most people are disconnected from reality, as in, what is taking place around the world.
I personally think most of the people in the West are disconnected in terms of where the world is heading and I believe this book does a great job to educate these souls about history and what they can expect in future.
I will sum up my takeaway in few lines so you can save yourself time and effort...
There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen...
As Howard Marks recently said:
"I doubt most people could actually explain what a trillion is (that is, they likely have no idea that it’s a
thousand billion, or a million million). And the scale of a trillion is almost incomprehensible. I was
struck 30-40 years ago to learn that whereas a million dollars is $10 a second for 28 hours, a billion
dollars is $10 a second for 38 months. Now let’s think about a trillion: $10 a second for more than
3,000 years. As I said, almost incomprehensible."
With trillions printed, you should be ready for a ride of a lifetime.
I am excited for great gains and opportunities are you?
36 people found this helpful
Absolutely Essential Reading -Brilliant
Reviewed in the United States on December 6, 2021
Ray Dalio has done the work one would hope academic scholars would have done some time ago. He explains the underlying causes for economic cycles, power, wealth creation and destruction in an absolutely crystal-clear fashion based on an incredible amount of thought and research. It is extremely easy to comprehend and explains so much of the current world economic and political situation that it should be required reading for every college graduate, corporate executive or government leader. The book is also written with a brilliant structure such that you can read the bold-faced sentences and come away with a clear understanding OR you can read the full text for those who want to understand the entire basis for the conclusions. Still others can go to a website that contains detail about the research behind the book. More books should be written with this structure.
Ray has given the world a gift. It is an explanation of what is happening economically and politically to major economic powers around the world and especially the US, and it is a warning that we are in for a bad period of adjustment already in process. This gift should not be wasted but rather understood.
You can listen to the day-to-day commentary of market pundits like Jim Cramer and learn nothing or you can read this book and understand the context in which all the momentary activity is taking place. You might even come away with the wisdom to protect the assets you own in the next market decline. Most importantly you will finally have a context in which to understand current events.
It's brilliant and don't miss it.
I
17 people found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on December 2, 2021
Fantastic use of studying history to arrive at insights into the likely future of today's great powers, economies, and reserve currencies...my only point of difference is I would view his historical observations of factors behind the rise and fall of nations as "tendencies" more than "determinants"--basically, I see the world as 70% political/economic mechanics and 30% "stuff happening that I can't predict" where Ray Dalio is more 100% mechanistic. To me his conclusions are more probabilistic on a spectrum of likely scenarios rather than certainties...my only other question is why he doesn't discuss demographics along with productivity and the long-term debt cycle when discussing countries future growth--still great book!!
16 people found this helpful
The Profound Problem of Once in a Lifetime Events
Reviewed in the United States on December 24, 2021
One of the biggest of life's challenges is to realize - and deal with - once in a lifetime extraordinary events. It really never occurred to the vast majority of us that a pandemic like the Spanish Flu could happen in our lifetimes. However, studying history, and paying attention to thought leaders like Bill Gates, one could have prepared for the likelihood of such an event. But hardly anyone did.
We would like to assume that democracy in the United States will continue, that our vote will always count, but that is not a given at all. We would like to assume that we will not get involved in a major war with a superpower - particularly on our soil - but that too is not a given. We would like to assume that the money in our savings account will be worth about as much two years from now, as it is today. But that is certainly not a given, either. We would like to believe that the government has whipped persisting inflation, but we are now learning that may not be so. We would like to think that dollars will always be in demand as a stable currency by investors and countries around the world - with the many advantages that gives our country. As Dalio carefully documents, and many others have said, that is only true until it is not true. And becoming not true can go very fast indeed.
Understanding the cycles of history, Dalio concludes that for many of us, the conditions at the end of our lives are likely to be very different than conditions at the beginning, particularly economically. Since we haven't yet lived through what is probably coming, it is very difficult to anticipate these once in a lifetime events. For this particular problem, this book is quite helpful.
Besides once in a lifetime events, I particularly appreciated Dalio's understanding of how currency inevitably devalues over time, and the forces that make this a certainty. The logic of an amazing bull stock market at the same time the country was reeling during COVID now makes sense. There are solid reasons why things happen the way they happen.
Dalio is not absolutist in his predictions, and simply assigns probabilities.
While I read a lot, it is not obvious to me where Dalio is off base in his understandings. Perhaps he should have considered demographics more, as one reviewer suggested. But it seems to me that whatever demographic issues China will face will be equally bad or worse for the United States - particularly as we shut the door to younger immigrants. Contrary to what was said, Dalio does discuss the causes of the American civil war in his chapter on internal disorder.
I consider this book the single most important of books I read this year, and there were many great books in 2021.
9 people found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on December 2, 2021
This is a brilliant piece of work. Dalio comes across as highly informed, sincere, thoughtful, and apolitical. Although, the book, like Dalio himself, is an apolitical and systematic look at past history and the lessons we can learn from it. It contains a clear and unambiguous lessons we can only pray out political leaders on both sides of the aisle need to hear and understand.
10 people found this helpful
Fabulous read and extremely informative!
Reviewed in the United States on December 21, 2021
A very comprehensive and engaging insight into the rise and fall of empires over the past 500 years. Dalio's principles for a changing world order are fascinating and scary at the same time - we are in the middle of it and are living through it... His approach to explaining the historical events leading to the current world order and in particular the US - China tensions is fascinating. I now have a better understanding about critical flash points such as Taiwan and North Korea. It also allows me to better understand China's aggressive policies toward India, Nepal et all and the overall geo-political climate that we live in terms of money, power, productivity and influence.
Most notably, I found Dalio's observation on whoever wins the Technology war, will likely win the Economic and Military war to be of profound consequence! I hope more people pick up his book and read it and do whatever they can to reduce internal strife and divisions by lowering the temperature of political rhetoric, because that seems to be the greatest threat - the threat from within. I also hope that the political parties in power work on reducing the wealth gap, focus on re-training the workforce, and promote the STEM disciplines among young kids instead of fighting over baseless ideas that divide us from within to score cheap, short term political points.
In short, this is a brilliant book which provides an eye opening analysis of the current situation and what we can potentially do to alter course and avoid disastrous consequences. A must read for all who are interested in how the big cycles of history work in terms of money, power, productivity and world domination!
4 people found this helpful
From the United States
From the United States
Reviewed in the United States on December 9, 2021
Ray Dalio’s book is worth reading and I am very thankful Ray shared this work with the public. This is the 21st century version of the Durants’ The Lessons of History. This book expands on his ideas of the Long Term Debt Cycle and how it interacts with geopolitics, wealth distribution, economic and military power, and civil unrest and revolutions. Dalio’s big picture perspective and synthesis of the history of the Dutch, English, American world order and inevitable rise of the future China world order is fascinating. I particularly enjoyed the chapters on China’s history and the future US China perspective, and this alone is worth reading. Americans need to learn about China’s history and Confucius values to understand where the Chinese are coming from and why they value and behave they do so America can peacefully coexist without hot or cold wars with China. One critique of Dalio’s book is he treats the entire world like a well oiled machine with strong cause and effect relationships and a deterministic view of the world. While I have strong confidence in Dalio’s circle of competence regarding his deterministic view of macroeconomic topics around debt, inflation and economic growth, I am unsure if the deterministic machine view can be accurately applied broadly to the history of wars, revolutions, long term debt cycles, social cycles, and world powers. Even triangulating with world experts in this area can include narrative fallacy and hindsight bias that distort the cause-effect relationship in Dalio’s machine of world order and there is not a great way to validate this model. Dalio does acknowledge these limitations in the book but I believe the deterministic thinking can be dangerous and it is easy to see the problem in believing in these models too strongly and similar ideas in books on the Fourth Turning, Socionomics, and Peter Turchin with the eventual doom and gloom ideas that human nature seems to cling to. Nevertheless Dalio’s synthesis of world history and macroeconomics is fascinating and worth thinking about more and this is an excellent book.
4 people found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on January 28, 2022
This book serves as an important reminder that empires move in cycles and that the United States is in the later innings of its time. Success ultimately breeds its own decadence and complacency which opens up space for competitors to take over. Dalio does a great job of going through various hegemons' peaks and troughs to parse out what variables seemed to show each's decay. He estimates that the US, with its tenuous grip on the reserve currency and high debt levels that are being inflated away, must take corrective action. Rather than internal strife, measures need to be taken to compete in education, innovation and policy to better compete with China.
Dalio "optimistically" states that "destruction periods and war periods typically don’t last very long—roughly two or three years." Recency bias in the West have led many to forget how painful rebalancings can be. 7 out of 10 countries in Europe had wealth wiped out at least once and the few lucky ones had terrible decades of asset returns. Inflation compounds over time leading all known currencies in history to be completely devalued versus gold.
A sinophile, the author can explain the Chinese point of view very well. Readers may be annoyed by this discussion but it is invaluable in diagnosing the current state of affairs. How else can one understand Deng's embrace of capitalism despite staunchly remaining communist?
In conclusion, Dalio's solutions seem anodyne: diversify and be bipartisan. Inequality is a big problem for him (not poverty per se) yet US states with the highest debt levels and most generous welfare benefits are also the most indebted and unequal. Regardless, being on the lookout for the three major signs of decline seems like sage advice:
"The three most important markers I am watching now are: 1) the rules being disregarded, 2) both sides emotionally attacking each other, and 3) blood being spilled."
One person found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on December 20, 2021
This book is mainly a study of the economic history of nations and the world going back hundreds of years.
To think that somehow we can escape patterns and economic realities that are just about as predictable as the sun rising and setting each day is folly .
It's written in a very matter of fact non alarmist way , I appreciate that as the last thing I need now is more shock .
Personally I am past the point in thinking I or we can alter our course in a big way . There are to many irrevolkable realities this far down the track we have traveled .
I am bracing and preparing my mind and heart for a very different world .
I trust that Ray's work has no other intention than telling the truth as he sees it. The word that came to me today , Stay kind and be willing to live with less. much less .
3 people found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on December 10, 2021
My primary mission in this review is to thank Ray Dalio for his extraordinary efforts and the efforts of his research team and collaborators. The personal value for me of this material is extremely high. I am taken aback to have this information so carefully collated made available to me at any price. The narrative is well organized and clear. The reader carries the responsibility to read carefully and act accordingly. Thank you Ray Dalio
4 people found this helpful
Ray Dalio is the real Hari Seldon
Reviewed in the United States on January 3, 2022
As a kid the Foundation novels by Isaac Asimov were one of my favorite series. The idea that Hari Seldon could invent a science so precise that he could predict the future and see the eventual downfall of the Galactic Empire was fascinating. As an adult, the idea that Ray Dalio has succeeded in analyzing similar trends and sees the eventual downfall of the United States and the rise of China terrifies me. This book is a fascinating, eye-opening read for anyone interested in history, politics and economics and should be required reading for political leaders and activists from across the spectrum. Truly one of the best books I have read in years!
2 people found this helpful
Wonderful book to read after 2 years of global shocks and reckoning
Reviewed in the United States on January 17, 2022
This is one of the most enjoyable and pragmatic high level books on world order right now. The past 2 years of global pandemics undoubtedly provided an excellent ex-ante perspective for readers to verify many of the theories on world power and economic cycles and their interplays. As an American investor, the author deserves a lot of credit for being unbiased and blunt in pointing out the fundamental flaws of liberal democracy and the current crumbling status of capitalism which is built on astonishing excess of debt and easy credit. The author also looks to China for what they are doing right and what the rest of the world could learn from them. In an age of almost full-on adversary between the two leading powers, it takes a courage and even more so tremendous amount of confidence to speak the truth. A much needed book for our time.
3 people found this helpful
Great For Cocktail Parties or Cigar Lounges
Reviewed in the United States on January 19, 2022
Are you that guy who sits there in silence when then big wigs start discussing politics at the local golf club ? I am. I just don't follow enough of it to join in with the conversation. This book changes all of that. Basically a rant about the world, life, and economies and what is to come. I won't go any further than that.
If you want to know what's going on in the world today then read this book. Word of advice FORGET all the charts just read and come back to them later if you want. That was my only complaint. Otherwise I will look for more of the author's books.
One person found this helpful
Wonderfully framed and rigorously supported
Reviewed in the United States on December 12, 2021
Well I can’t say I’m excited about what’s happening in the world today, having a framework through which to understand it has been helpful. I can’t imagine a more important book to read in this era of change.
5 people found this helpful
Read it together with Peter Turchin’s work
Reviewed in the United States on December 2, 2021
This is a review in progress, but so far this is an excellent book to read concurrently with Peter Turchin’s work on Cliodynamics, especially if you want to delve deeper on how to model the dynamics of what’s being described in Dalio’s book.
4 people found this helpful
Reviewed in the United States on December 29, 2021
A fascinating and detailed read. Many pundits say the US is headed for financial catastrophe because of (basically) the Federal Reserve. Dalio brings up other cyclical factors going back centuries which significantly expands the discussion. He focuses on the US, the EU countries, Russia, and China, and projects a crisis likely with China in about 2026, plus or minus a couple of years. As the founder of a global asset fund he does not provide investment direction specifics (a bit of a surprise, at first) , but explains his philosophy and concerns. Up to date with Covid effects in the numerous graphs. "Why Nations Succeed and Fail" is the subtitle, and it is very apropos. Makes me want to pay much more attention to my grandson's education.
One person found this helpful
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